THREE THEORIES OF POPULATION

Top 3 Theories of Population.

The following points highlight the top three theories of population. The theories are: 1. The Malthusian Theory of Population 2. The Optimum Theory of Population 3. The Theory of Demographic Transition.

Population: Theory # 1. The Malthusian Theory of Population:

Thomas Robert Malthus enunciated his views about population in his famous book, Essay on the Principle of Population as it affects the Future Improvement of Society, published in 1798. Malthus revolted against the prevailing optimism shared by his father and Godwin that a perfect state could be attained if human restraints could be removed.

Malthus objection was that the pressure of increasing population on the food supply would destroy perfection and there would be misery in the world. Malthus was severely criticised for his pessimistic views which led him to travel on the continent of Europe to gather data in support of his thesis.

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He incorporated his researches in the second edition of his Essay published in 1803. The Malthusian theory explains the relationship between the growth in food supply and in population. It states that population increases faster than food supply and if unchecked leads to vice or misery.

The Malthusian doctrine is stated as follows:

(1) There is a natural sex instinct in human beings to increase at a fast rate. As a result, population increases in geometrical progression and if unchecked doubles itself every 25 years. Thus starting from 1, population in successive periods of 25 years will be 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256 (after 200 years).

(2) On the other hand, the food supply increases in a slow arithmetical progression due to the operation of the law of diminishing returns based on the supposition that the supply of land is constant. Thus the food supply in successive similar periods will be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 (after 200 years).

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(3) Since population increases in geometrical progression and the food supply in arithmetical progression, population tends to outrun food supply. Thus an imbalance is created which leads to over-population. This is depicted in Figure 1.

The food supply in arithmetical progression is measured on the horizontal axis and the population in geometrical progression on the vertical axis. The curve M is the Malthusian population curve which shows the relation between population growth and increase in food supply. It rises upward swiftly.

(4) To control over-population resulting from the imbalance between population and food supply, Malthus suggested preventive checks and positive checks. The preventive checks are applied by a man to control the birth rate. They are foresight, late marriage, celibacy, moral restraint, etc.

If people fail to check growth of population by the adoption of preventive checks, positive checks operate in the form of vice, misery, famine, war, disease, pestilence, floods and other natural calamities which
tend to reduce population and thereby bring a balance with food supply.

According to Malthus, preventive checks are always in operation in a civilized society, for positive checks are crude. Malthus appealed to his countrymen to adopt preventive checks in order to avoid vice or misery resulting from the positive checks.

Malthus doctrine is illustrated below.

Criticisms of the Malthusian Doctrine:

The Malthusian theory of population has been widely discussed and criticised during the 19th and early 20th century.

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Some of the criticisms are as follows:

(1) Mathematical Form of the Theory Wrong:

The mathematical formulation of Malthus’ doctrine that food supply increases in arithmetical progression and population increases in geometrical progression in 25 years have not been proved empirically. Rather, the food supply has increased more than in the arithmetical progression while population growth has not been in geometric